Weston Nakamura, founder of Across The Spread and a seasoned macro analyst, has brought attention to a significant shift in Bitcoin's price correlation. Traditionally, Bitcoin tracked U.S. equities like the Nasdaq 100, but recent data suggests a stronger relationship with the long-end Japanese Government Bond (JGB), specifically the 30-year yield. As both Bitcoin and these bond yields reach record highs, Nakamura notes that the alignment is evident during key market events like the launch of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and the political landscape surrounding Trump's re-election bid.
Nakamura argues that this new correlation is not merely a secondary result of U.S. Treasury yield movements but rather a reflection of Japan’s unique financial dynamics influencing global markets. Reinforcing his viewpoint, U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent recently indicated that the domestic Treasury yields are shaped by international factors, particularly from Japan. This insight leads to a compelling notion: if U.S. economic policies are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which is in turn impacted by Japan's bond markets, Japan could be playing a pivot role in shaping U.S. policy directions.
Overall, Nakamura posits that JGBs now occupy a crucial position within the global financial system, affecting a range of assets from cryptocurrencies to equities, foreign exchange, and commodities like gold. For investors, he emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring Japan’s bond market due to its potential outsized impact on global asset behaviors.
Nakamura argues that this new correlation is not merely a secondary result of U.S. Treasury yield movements but rather a reflection of Japan’s unique financial dynamics influencing global markets. Reinforcing his viewpoint, U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent recently indicated that the domestic Treasury yields are shaped by international factors, particularly from Japan. This insight leads to a compelling notion: if U.S. economic policies are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which is in turn impacted by Japan's bond markets, Japan could be playing a pivot role in shaping U.S. policy directions.
Overall, Nakamura posits that JGBs now occupy a crucial position within the global financial system, affecting a range of assets from cryptocurrencies to equities, foreign exchange, and commodities like gold. For investors, he emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring Japan’s bond market due to its potential outsized impact on global asset behaviors.
