Although private mempools can streamline transaction handling during high congestion, they introduce a level of opacity not present in the public mempool. Without visibility, it becomes difficult to predict fee estimates for users and could even lead to potential manipulation of transaction fees. For miners, relying on third-party APIs for transaction submissions can mean less revenue, as these services often require a cut of the transaction fees.
The ongoing shift toward Full RBF (Replace-By-Fee) allows transactions to be fee-bumped regardless of their original settings, leading to the creation of transaction accelerators used by miners to ensure timely confirmations. The risks associated with private APIs include reliance on a few providers which could centralize transaction processing, making it difficult for smaller miners to compete. Additionally, tracking parallel mempools can confuse users, as they must navigate multiple networks to have an accurate view of transactions.
Critically, the incentives driving the Bitcoin network mean that private APIs and mempools may create inefficiencies and challenges rather than solving problems. Addressing transaction dynamics at the consensus level is vital for a healthy Bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin's future relies on clarity and efficiency in how transactions are relayed and confirmed across the network.